Sea level and temperature extremes in a regulated Lagoon of Venice

Created March 19, 2026

Updated on May 12, 2026

approved

Increasing sea levels and water temperatures have been detected at several coastal locations worldwide with severe consequences on the communities and ecosystems. Coastal lagoons are particularly vulnerable to such changes due to their low land elevation and limited connections with the open sea. Here the recent and future climatic changes in the Lagoon of Venice (Italy) are investigated using in-situ observations and high-resolution hydrodynamic modeling. Trend analysis was applied to observed time series of meteorological and oceanographic climate essential variables to identify significant long-term changes in mean and extreme values. The mean relative sea level rose at a rate of 4.9 mm per year in Venice due to the combined action of eustacy and subsidence while air and sea temperatures increased on average by 1.8 and 1.1°C in 30 years, respectively. These rates, as well as climate projections, were used following a pseudo-global-warming approach to investigate the near future (up to 2050) evolution of the lagoon's dynamics focusing on sea level and temperature extremes. The lagoon will amplify the temperature changes expected for the Adriatic Sea, especially in the shallow tidal flats where the intensity of the marine heat waves will be more than four times larger than that in the open sea. Moreover, the model allowed us to perform “what-if” scenarios to explore to which extent the flood protection MoSE barriers will modify the lagoon's dynamics. According to the simulations, the number of floods and therefore of the MoSE closure strongly increases with sea level rise. In the most severe scenario, MoSE will have to close for more than 20% of the time in October, November, and December resulting in the reduction of water exchange with the open sea and exacerbation of marine cold spells. Some considerations on the implications of the expected changes on the lagoon's ecology are proposed.

itineris-hub
Tags:
Climatic Trends
Extreme Sea Levels
Marine Heat Waves
Publication - Article
Relative Sea Level Rise
Venice
Basic
Language
English
MainTitle
Sea level and temperature extremes in a regulated Lagoon of Venice
Original ids
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1330388
Type
publication
bestAccessRight
OPEN
contributors
Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice, Italy
countries
Italy
Creator/Author
Full name
  • Ferrarin, Christian, orcid: 0000-0003-1172-1463;
  • Bonaldo, Davide, orcid: 0000-0003-2458-4963;
  • Bergamasco, Alessandro, orcid: 0000-0003-3138-8418;
  • Ghezzo, Michol, orcid: 0000-0002-8952-0883
Other
Description
Increasing sea levels and water temperatures have been detected at several coastal locations worldwide with severe consequences on the communities and ecosystems. Coastal lagoons are particularly vulnerable to such changes due to their low land elevation and limited connections with the open sea. Here the recent and future climatic changes in the Lagoon of Venice (Italy) are investigated using <jats:italic>in-situ</jats:italic> observations and high-resolution hydrodynamic modeling. Trend analysis was applied to observed time series of meteorological and oceanographic climate essential variables to identify significant long-term changes in mean and extreme values. The mean relative sea level rose at a rate of 4.9 mm per year in Venice due to the combined action of eustacy and subsidence while air and sea temperatures increased on average by 1.8 and 1.1°C in 30 years, respectively. These rates, as well as climate projections, were used following a pseudo-global-warming approach to investigate the near future (up to 2050) evolution of the lagoon's dynamics focusing on sea level and temperature extremes. The lagoon will amplify the temperature changes expected for the Adriatic Sea, especially in the shallow tidal flats where the intensity of the marine heat waves will be more than four times larger than that in the open sea. Moreover, the model allowed us to perform “what-if” scenarios to explore to which extent the flood protection MoSE barriers will modify the lagoon's dynamics. According to the simulations, the number of floods and therefore of the MoSE closure strongly increases with sea level rise. In the most severe scenario, MoSE will have to close for more than 20% of the time in October, November, and December resulting in the reduction of water exchange with the open sea and exacerbation of marine cold spells. Some considerations on the implications of the expected changes on the lagoon's ecology are proposed.
Publication Date
2024-01-12
Publisher
Frontiers Media SA
Subjects
  • Environmental sciences;
  • 0106 biological sciences;
  • Relative sea level rise;
  • Marine heat waves;
  • Climatic trends;
  • 13. Climate action;
  • 14. Life underwater;
  • Extreme sea levels;
  • 01 natural sciences;
  • 06. Clean water;
  • Venice;
  • 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
isGreen
false
isInDiamondJournal
false
Software
Publication
Name
Frontiers in Climate
Publication
Article
issnOnline
2624-9553
vol
5
Other Research Product
Detailed informations
system:type
Research Product
Management Info
Author
Catalogue Manager ITINERIS
Version
1
Last Updated
May 12, 2026, 09:12 (UTC)
Created
March 19, 2026, 00:32 (UTC)
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